Reading an Op-Ed from the American Enterprise Institute concerning the issues facing the European economy and the tools (or lack thereof) available to the ECB for fighting them, I was reminded of a conversation that I had over the weekend. How I was asked, do you know when it tis time to get out of the […]
The conventional wisdom among fixed income market seers is that the Federal Reserve will continue to tighten credit, raising the fed funds target rate multiple more times before they are finished! This is due to a stronger economy, inflation under control and unemployment at low levels suggesting full employment. This scenario presents the Fed with a […]
The two-pronged Federal Reserve mandate is to control inflation within a pre-determined range and maximize U.S. employment! And from all observations the economy is fulfilling both with the unemployment rate reported July 2018 at 3.9% and the July CPI rising .2% with an annual increase in the core rate of 2.4%. If the economy is […]
Yesterday the Federal Reserve raised its key fed funds rate by .25% and signaled that they would likely raise two more times in 2018! For consumers who have a record amount of debt outstanding (a level over $13 trillion that’s $280 billion higher than the 2008 peak and 16.2% above the 2013 trough), the good […]
In the past the Hallmark Abstract Service blog has opined on the professionals whose job it is to forecast a variety of different outcomes whether economic or something else, and for better or worse the tendency for them to miss the mark that they have predicted! The article ‘Predicting The Weather, Mortgage Rates, Commodity Prices Or Most Anything Else Is […]
Economic theory has always held that an inverted U.S. treasury yield curve could be used as a reliable signal for a recession looming on the horizon. According to the Federal Reserve, however, this time is different! This Time Is Different “How different the position of the investor today!” was the headline for an ad that ran […]
(Note: This article has been featured in the LinkedIn Channels Banking & Finance, Economy and Editor’s Picks) Smart Money – If you’ve ever bet on the ponies the ‘smart money’ will typically be the money wagered right before the betting windows closed. Theoretically these are the people who may have an inside track about the horses […]
While interest rates have risen from depths that saw the 10-year treasury yielding 1.36% on 7/3/16, to 2.25% today, given Fed plans to tighten and pledge to shrink its balance sheet should rates be even higher? The Fed will typically engage in the monetary policy of tightening and lift the Fed Funds rate when the two […]
With the Janet Yellen-led Fed raising the fed funds target range while signaling more hikes may be in the immediate future, will rising rates kill the stock market rally? And, by the same token, will the rising mortgage rates that will accompany the Federal Reserve tightening policy bring the hammer down on the real estate market through […]
Depending on your perspective as an investor in stocks, bonds or real estate, the post-election action in the financial markets has either been phenomenally great or dismally destructive! Of course if your portfolio is well diversified as the experts suggest that it should be, then that makes for an entirely different story altogether. Bond Market […]
