Category Archives: interest rates

Federal Reserve Gradualism: A Dangerous Game?

In a move many market participants felt was long overdue, at its most recent meeting the Fed raised the fed funds rate .25%! And, after parsing the language in Janet Yellen’s statement, the belief is that 2016 may see two or three more hikes of .25% each leaving the fed funds rate in the .75%-1% range at the end of […]

Fed Decision: It’s The Final Countdown (Video)

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Summary: Fed rate hikes, like eating Lay’s potato chips, are rarely done just once. Will the Fed raise rates tomorrow as expected and then what will be its plan going forward? ‘Fed Decision: It’s The Final Countdown (Video)‘ Today the Fed begins to deliberate about what will likely be the first interest rate hike in nine […]

Bond Yields, The Economy And Real Estate: Are They Sustainable At Their Current Levels?

sovereign debt

Last week Fed Chair Janet Yellen decided, in the face of non-crisis level U.S. economic statistics, to leave interest rates unchanged at the economic crisis level of 0%! Her rationale was believable for some and hard to understand for others but, for anyone who listened and for those who didn’t, she mentioned non-U.S. economic factors […]

Janet Yellen Stands Pat On Rates – An Analogy

For those who may not have heard, yesterday afternoon the Fed announced that it will leave its key interest rate at 0%! This move came as a surprise to some and as no surprise to others. I count myself as being in the ‘not surprised’ camp as I expressed in an article from about one […]

Will The Fed Normalize Rates? Three Reasons Why It Won’t (Can’t)!

Will the Fed announce that it is raising rates a quarter point at the FOMC meeting that ends on September 17th, or will it stand pat? Inquiring minds want to know, particularly in some of the interest rate and economically sensitive sectors such as investments, banking, real estate and mortgages. But, as I conjectured in an […]

The Federal Reserve Needs To Raise Rates So That It Can Cut Rates!

Confused? The Fed raising interest rates in order to be able to cut them at some point in the future is the rationale I am hearing on the business news!  The reason is that if (when) the United States economy heads into another recession, the Fed will have ammunition available to be able to take proactive […]

Bond Market Illiquidity: There’s A Very Small Door!

Imagine a concert venue with general admission seating, a famous band, and one small door to get inside. The result would likely be catastrophic! Is a similar scenario brewing only this time in the financial markets, bonds in particular? For the fund managers and other institutional investors who hold trillions of dollars of fixed income […]

Is The Treasury Market Sending An Ominous Message?

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For anyone who’s involved in an industry sensitive to the level of interest rates, any move up in yields can spell a major problem for business! Of course the mortgage industry comes immediately to mind and, by extension, real estate and by even further extension title insurance, etc. But what about peoples retirement funds, college […]

Is the Fed behind the proverbial interest rate eight ball?

Whatever industry you happen to be working in, a healthy and consistently growing US economy will likely be one of your most important keys to success! Certainly my business of providing the title insurance for buyers and refinancers of real estate depends heavily on a growing economy, consumer confidence, a vibrant transactional marketplace and available financing […]

The Shadow Banking System And Why The Fed CAN’T Raise Interest Rates!

shadow banking,leverage,interest rates

Janet Yellen discussed Fed policy and interest rates yesterday and, with the removal of the word ‘Patient’ from the current Open Market Committee statement, financial markets roared! Of course when it comes to Fed-speak the removal of one word, in this case ‘patient’, reminds one of another quite famous parsing of words when the phrase […]