Category Archives: economy

1st Quarter GDP Growth Disappoints And Non-Farm Payrolls Surprise To The Upside…Imagine That, The Forecasts Were Wrong!

Citigroup Economic Surprise Index

In the past the Hallmark Abstract Service blog has opined on the professionals whose job it is to forecast a variety of different outcomes whether economic or something else, and for better or worse the tendency for them to miss the mark that they have predicted! The article ‘Predicting The Weather, Mortgage Rates, Commodity Prices Or Most Anything Else Is […]

Yield Curve Flattening: What Does This Mean For The Real Estate Market?

federal reserve photo

Update: Mortgage Rates Jump to 7-Year Highs May 15 2018, 4:02PM Mortgage rates spiked in a big way today, bringing some lenders to the highest levels in nearly 7 years (you’d need to go back to July 2011 to see worse). That heavy-hitting headline is largely due to the fact that rates were already fairly close […]

Talking Heads, Politicians, Economists and Fund Managers Tout Tax Cuts, Increased Consumer Spending And U.S. Economic Growth Of 3%-4%!

empty pockets photo

But, What If All Of These ‘Experts’ Are Wrong? Many point to the fact that 3%-4% U.S. (or even better) GDP growth may be just around the corner. Some wholeheartedly believe it while others may be somewhat skeptical. For them, however, having it occur would be beneficial to their clients and ultimately them. But at the same […]

Stock Market Poised For A Staggering Decline? The Television Commercial Indicator Says It Very Well Might Be!

stock market photo

I know what investors will say…’Who is this title insurance guy to be predicting that the stock market is ready to rollover, correct or decline precipitously?’… Is he a high-priced analysts at a hedge fund or talking head on the business news? You know, the ones who will typically say after a big down day in […]

The U.S. Economy: Are Bonds Or Stocks Telling The True Story?

10-year treasury bond yield chart

On the heels of this mornings employment report indicating jobs creation below even the most pessimistic economist forecast along with revisions lower to the prior months, why are the bond and stock markets telling two such very different stories? This morning at 8:30AM the Employment Report was released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showing new […]

If You’re In Business How Will You Choose Your Candidate For President?

On Tuesday, November 8, 2016 Americans will be called upon to cast a vote for the new POTUS along with a slew of Congressmen and Senators! For many Americans the choice, particularly for the new occupant of the White House, may be a difficult one. That said, this article is not meant to advocate for one […]

What ‘Brexit’ May Mean For The U.S. Real Estate Market!

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Now that the ‘Brexit’ vote is in the books and ‘Leave’ the EU side is the victor, what might this mean for U.S. real estate? Some facts we know… Global Stock Markets Are Swooning! The British Pound Is Getting Hammered Versus Other Global Currencies! Interest Rates Are Falling Precipitously!  The List Of 7 Potential Impacts From […]

The Yield Curve: Is A U.S. Recession On The Horizon?

treasury yield curve,recession signals,economy

In my first job as a municipal bond analyst and strategist a key datapoint to consider was the steepness of the yield curve! When the curve was at its steepest, investors would be ‘getting paid’ in the form of higher yields to assume the price and reinvestment risk of moving out to longer maturities. When flat, meaning […]

Last Weeks Economic Acronyms: PIIGS, BDI, FOMC!

EU,PIIGS

How many acronyms will fit in one article title? For this weeks articles we’ll cap it at three! Many of this past weeks articles at the Hallmark Abstract Service blog focused on the global economy in conjunction with the turmoil in financial markets around the world. These three acronyms played a critical role… PIIGS: These are the five […]

Are The EU PIIGS About To Start Squealing?

Summary: As the migrant crisis in Europe worsens serious steps to address it are being considered. One proposal is for passports to be required in order to cross from one EU country to another. Would such a drastic move spell the beginning of the end for the Eurozone as a viable entity? And if so […]