Tag Archives: inverted yield curve and recession

Treasury Yield Curve And The Fed Rate Decision: Is The Federal Reserve Caught Between A Rock And A Hard Place?

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The conventional wisdom among fixed income market seers is that the Federal Reserve will continue to tighten credit, raising the fed funds target rate multiple more times before they are finished! This is due to a stronger economy, inflation under control and unemployment at low levels suggesting full employment. This scenario presents the Fed with a […]

Is The Shape Of The U.S. Treasury Yield Curve Warning That A Recession May Be Imminent?

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Back in the 1980’s when working as a municipal bond analyst, I would keep investors informed about the shape of the tax-free yield curve! If the yield curve was positive and steep, or in other words a significant difference between short and long-term yields, then investors would be getting compensated for taking on the additional […]