The US Economic Monitor – Week of October 27, 2014

Under the assumption that most Americans would like to keep an eye on their money, the US Economic Calendar for the week of October 27, 2014 is a great tool to have at your disposal!

With economic and political uncertainty more of the rule than exception, this weeks key economic releases and corporate earnings may hold what may be some helpful clues concerning the strength of the US economy.

Further, they may help to indicate the direction that interest rates may move both in the near and intermediate term although geopolitics and disease may take center stage instead!

Of course any significant move in government bond yields are important to monitor because spikes either up or down will have an impact on mortgage rates and by extension the general health of the real estate market.

If, however, a significant move in the Treasury market appears to be due more to a flight to quality trade then the overall the strength or weakness of the US economy or level of inflation, the bond yield discussion becomes much cloudier.

Current Yield

The 10-year US treasury note is currently yielding 2.26%, relatively stable for the past couple of weeks.

This stability seems to be due to a calming of the geopolitical angst surrounding ISIS and apparent lack of concern over a potential spread of Ebola in the United States!

And continuing a recent economic narrative, market participants may feel that Fed impetus to raise rates might be waning due to a belief that the US economy is not as strong as advertised and that inflation is under control.

The US Economic Calendar

The economic data scheduled for release this week will provide investors and businesses with both anecdotal evidence about the direction that the US economy is heading along with actual data about its current condition.

The upcoming week offers a fairly significant array of economic data releases with some of the headline reports that will be most closely scrutinized by market participants, the Fed, politicians and investors including the release of 3rd Quarter GDP, Pending Home Sales, Case-Shiller, Consumer Confidence, Durable Goods and Consumer Sentiment.

It will be a quiet week as far as scheduled speeches by members of the Federal Reserve goes with none on the calendar, although impromptu comments or remarks by any of them can potentially occur at any time.

Of course the Federal Reserve is meeting this week and the statement about policy to be issued on Wednesday will be significant and likely have major financial market implications!

Finally, once again the markets will also be closely watching geopolitical hotspotsthat have the potential for serious flare-ups with global implications.

Currently on the front-burner geopolitically are the following crises, some with conditions that have changed over the past week and others that remain static. It is also a list that unfortunately continues to grow:

• Continued ineffectiveness on the part of the United States to deal with ISIS, the terror group that is taking over territory in Iraq and Syria with impunity and is currently on the doorstep of Baghdad,
• The threat that the spread of ISIS could, or potentially already has, moved to the United States,
• Continued decline in the global price of oil,
• Mid-term election on November 4th,
• Along those lines the fear that the next phase in the Global War on Terror could be ‘lone wolf’ attackers,
• Israel-Hamas conflict that currently simmers but that has the potential to boil over at any time,
• Fallout from pro-European victories in Ukraine elections coupled with potential for theRussia-Ukraine conflict to boil over at any time,
• Potential for the White House to enlist the help of Iran in the battle against ISIS in return for easing the attempts to end that country’s nuclear ambitions,
• Continuing crisis at the US-Mexico border,
• Continued confusion over the state of the leadership in North Korea,
• The Ebola breakout that remains active with the potential to spread,
• Fallout over the results of the ECB bank stress test.

Courtesy of Econoday this is the chart of the US economic data to be released during the week of October 27, 2014 along with scheduled speeches by members of the Federal Reserve. The chart below also includes the upcoming treasury auction calendar!

Monday Oct 27 Tuesday Oct 28 Wednesday Oct 29 Thursday Oct 30 Friday Oct 31 Market Focus » International Perspective » Simply Economics » PMI Services Flash 9:45 AM ET Pending Home Sales Index 10:00 AM ET Dallas Fed Mfg Survey 10:30 AM ET 4-Week Bill Announcement 11:00 AM ET 3-Month Bill Auction 11:30 AM ET 6-Month Bill Auction 11:30 AM ET FOMC Meeting Begins ICSC-Goldman Store Sales 7:45 AM ET Durable Goods Orders 8:30 AM ET Redbook 8:55 AM ET S&P Case-Shiller HPI 9:00 AM ET Consumer Confidence 10:00 AM ET Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index 10:00 AM ET State Street Investor Confidence Index 10:00 AM ET 4-Week Bill Auction 11:30 AM ET 2-Yr Note Auction 1:00 PM ET MBA Purchase Applications 7:00 AM ET EIA Petroleum Status Report 10:30 AM ET 2-Yr FRN Auction 1:00 PM ET 5-Yr Note Auction 1:00 PM ET FOMC Meeting Announcement 2:00 PM ET Weekly Bill Settlement GDP 8:30 AM ET Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index 9:45 AM ET EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 AM ET 3-Month Bill Announcement 11:00 AM ET 6-Month Bill Announcement 11:00 AM ET 7-Yr Note Auction 1:00 PM ET Fed Balance Sheet 4:30 PM ET Money Supply 4:30 PM ET Personal Income and Outlays 8:30 AM ET Employment Cost Index 8:30 AM ET Chicago PMI 9:45 AM ET Consumer Sentiment 9:55 AM ET Farm Prices 3:00 PM ET Equity Settlement 10-30-14 Equity Settlement 10-31-14 Equity Settlement 11-3-14 Equity Settlement 11-4-14 Equity Settlement 11-5-14

Important Legal Notice: Econoday has attempted to verify the information contained in this calendar. However, any aspect of such info may change without notice. Econoday does not provide investment advice, and does not represent that any of the information or related analysis is accurate or complete at any time. Legal Notices © 1998-2014 Econoday, Inc. All Rights Reserved.Actual Data Source: Haver Analytics |  Legal Notices © 1998-2014 Econoday, Inc. All Rights Reserved.Econoday Suggestion Box: We welcome your ideas on how we can serve you better.

Market Moving Indicator Merit Extra Attention Other Key Indicator Consensus Info Available Final Data and Analysis Available

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Written by Michael Haltman, President of Hallmark Abstract Service, New York.

HAS is a provider of title insurance in New York State for residential and commercial real estate transactions specializing in the areas of New York City, Long Island and Westchester.

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If you have any questions you can reach Michael by email at mhaltman@hallmarkabstractllc.com.