Whether it’s what a company may earn in a given quarter, who will win the 8th at Belmont, if it will rain today or of course the economy, forecasting and prediction are inexact sciences!
As discussed in this space previously, ‘Predicting The Weather, Mortgage Rates, Commodity Prices Or Most Anything Else Is Not For The Faint Of Heart!‘.
That said, and for better or worse, many rely on these forecasts in their decision-making process. Therefore, it is incumbent on individuals to find those forecasters who they feel have been the most accurate and reliable over time.
Economic Indicators
In the area of the economy one of the go-to economists is Peter Morici from the University of Maryland, formerly Chief Economist of the United States International Trade Commission. Peter is very well credentialed, pragmatic and, as an aside, who also earned his Ph.D from SUNY/Albany my alma mater.
These are his forecasts for various sectors of the economy over the next two weeks…
|
|
Forecast
|
Prior Observation
|
Consensus | |
|
Week of July 9
|
||||
|
July 9
|
||||
|
Consumer Credit – May
|
$12.0B
|
9.3
|
12.4
|
|
|
July 10
|
||||
|
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index – June
|
106.5
|
107.8
|
106.0
|
|
|
JOLTS – May
|
6.700
|
6.698
|
6.700
|
|
|
July 11
|
||||
|
Producer Producer Index – June
|
0.1%
|
0.5
|
0.2
|
|
|
Core PPI (less food, energy and trade services
|
0.2
|
0.1
|
0.2
|
|
|
Wholesale Inventories – May
|
0.5%
|
0.5
|
0.5
|
|
|
July 12
|
||||
|
Initial Unemployment Claims
|
225K
|
231
|
225
|
|
|
Consumer Price Index – June
|
0.1%
|
0.2
|
0.2
|
|
|
Core CPI
|
0.2
|
0.2
|
0.2
|
|
|
Treasury Budget – June
|
-$135.0B
|
-146.8
|
||
|
July 13
|
||||
|
Export Prices – June
|
0.1%
|
0.6
|
0.3
|
|
|
Import Prices
|
-0.2
|
0.6
|
0.2
|
|
|
Import Prices, ex-Energy
|
||||
|
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (p)
|
98.2
|
98.2
|
98.2
|
|
|
Week of July 16
|
||||
|
July 16
|
||||
|
Retail Sales – June
|
0.8%
|
0.8
|
||
|
Retail Sales, ex Autos
|
0.4
|
0.9
|
||
|
Retail Sales, ex Autos and Gasoline
|
0.5
|
0.8
|
||
|
NY Fed Manufacturing Index
|
22.5
|
25.0
|
||
|
Business Inventories – May
|
0.4%
|
0.3
|
||
|
July 17
|
||||
|
Industrial Production – June
|
0.5%
|
-0.1
|
||
|
Capacity Utilization
|
78.3
|
77.9
|
||
|
Manufacturing
|
0.6
|
-0.7
|
||
|
NAHB Index – July
|
70
|
68
|
||
|
July 18
|
||||
|
Housing Starts – June
|
1.320M
|
1.350
|
||
|
Building Permits
|
1.340
|
1.301
|
||
|
July 19
|
||||
|
Philadelphia Fed Survey
|
22.0
|
21.5
|
||
|
Leading Indicators
|
0.2%
|
0.3
|
||
Michael Haltman, President
Hallmark Abstract Service
Phone: (646) 741-6101
Email: mhaltman@hallmarkabstractllc.com
