This coming week we will likely begin to see some of the economic impact that the coronavirus is inflicting on the U.S. economy.
The forecasts below were generated by Peter Morici, a professor at the University of Maryland Smith School of Business, former Chief Economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission, and seven-time winner of the MarketWatch best forecaster award.
|
Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.
|
||||
|
Forecast
|
Prior Observation
|
Consensus
|
||
|
Week of March 23
|
||||
|
March 23
|
||||
|
Chicago Fed National Activity Index – February
|
-0.60
|
-0.25
|
||
|
March 24
|
||||
|
PMI Manufacturing Flash Index
|
45.0
|
50.7
|
43.0
|
|
|
PMI Services Flash Index
|
45.0
|
49.4
|
42.0
|
|
|
New Home Sales – February
|
740K
|
764
|
750.0
|
|
|
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
|
-4
|
-2
|
||
|
March 25
|
||||
|
Durable Goods Orders – February
|
-1.0%
|
-0.2
|
-0.7
|
|
|
FHFA Housing Price Index – January
|
0.5%
|
0.6
|
||
|
March 26
|
||||
|
Initial Unemployment Claims
|
1000K
|
281
|
775
|
|
|
International Trade in Goods – February
|
-$62.0B
|
-65.5
|
||
|
Wholesale Inventories (a) – February
|
-0.5%
|
-0.4
|
||
|
GDP – Q4 (f)
|
2.1%
|
2.1
|
2.1
|
|
|
March 27
|
||||
|
Personal Income – February
|
0.4%
|
0.6
|
0.4
|
|
|
Personal Spending – February
|
0.2
|
0.2
|
0.2
|
|
|
Michigan Consumer Sentiment – March (f)
|
91.0
|
95.9
|
90.0
|
|
|
Week of March 30
|
||||
|
March 30
|
||||
|
Pending Home Sale Index – February
|
108.8
|
108.8
|
||
|
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index
|
-7.0
|
1.2
|
||
|
March 31
|
||||
|
S&P Case/Shiller Index – January
|
||||
|
Ten City M/M
|
||||
|
Ten City Y/Y
|
||||
|
Twenty City M/M
|
0.1%
|
0.0
|
||
|
Twenty City M/M – SA
|
0.4
|
0.4
|
||
|
Twenty City Y/Y
|
3.1
|
2.9
|
||
|
Third Quarter Twenty City Q/Q – SA
|
||||
|
Chicago PMI – March
|
40.0
|
49.0
|
||
|
Consumer Confidence Index – March
|
120.0
|
130.7
|
||
|
April 1
|
||||
|
ADP Employment Report – March
|
-360
|
183
|
||
|
ISM (Mfg) – March
|
43.5
|
50.1
|
||
|
Construction Spending – February
|
0.5%
|
1.8
|
||
|
Auto Sales* – March
|
15.2K
|
16.8
|
||
|
Car Sales
|
3.6
|
4.3
|
||
|
Truck Sales
|
11.6
|
12.6
|
||
|
*SAAR, as published by Motor Intelligence
|
||||
|
April 2
|
||||
|
Initial Unemployment Claims
|
||||
|
International Trade – February
|
-$43.3B
|
-45.3
|
||
|
April 3
|
||||
|
Nonfarm Payrolls – March
|
-350K
|
273
|
||
|
Private
|
-360
|
228
|
||
|
Unemployment
|
3.9%
|
3.5
|
||
|
Average Workweek
|
33.0HR
|
34.4
|
||
|
Average Hourly Earnings
|
0.2%
|
0.3
|
||
|
ISM Services – March
|
48.0
|
57.3
|